Terminology – Flattening the curve (aplatissement de la courbe)

Copyright © Françoise Herrmann 

At any other time in history, you might have honestly wondered which curve? On March 22, 2020, however, the only curve that really matters has become a question of shared planetary destiny. Indeed, almost everyone in the world has been enlisted to participate in containment and mitigation efforts to flatten the curve, the curve that statistically models the spread of COVID-19 (Corona Virus Disease 2019). In other words, according to Spektor (2020), a steep curve that might model an exponential rise and fall in the number of cases recorded, when the number of cases doubles, and subsequently decreases, rapidly each day. Or, a more gentle curve, when it is “flattened” across time with interventions designed to prevent the spread of the virus. Interventions (when successful) that result in decreasing the speed of contagion and predicted spike in cases, which might otherwise overload existing health services. The following illustration shows the two sorts of curves, modeling COVID19 spread scenarios, the steep and rounded (or flattened) curves, with and without interventions (indexed as protective measures).

Originating in the domain of epidemiology, the term flattening the curve, in fact, tells the story of all virus outbreaks, and of the action that must be quickly deployed to avoid the corollary risks of exceeding the capacity of healthcare systems. In the US, the  leading epidemiologist, Head of the NIH - NIAID (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases), Dr. Anthony Fauci, explained the containment and mitigation strategies designed to flatten the curve, during the Presidential Press Conference, on March 13, 2020, announcing the US State of Emergency.  Containment measures such as restrictions on travel, and in the absence of containment, mitigation efforts such as shelter-in-place orders, social distancing, hand washing hygiene, and telecommuting [CDC-US Gov. COVID19]. Measures and efforts that appear none too radical when facing a virus, without a vaccine,  that is in fact 10 times more potent than seasonal flu viruses. Indeed, a virus that has now infected more than 250,000 people worldwide, killing to date a total of more than 11,000 people, since the first case was reported in November 2019, in Wuhan, Hubei Province of The People's  Republic of China [WHO, COVID19 Outbreak situation]. 

Below, a recorded segment of the March 13, 2020, Presidential Press Conference, at the White House Rose Garden. A Press Conference, where the US State of Emergency was announced, and key members of the COVID19 Taskforce were presented. This particular segment, occurring during the Q&A part of the Press Conference, captures Dr. Fauci’s re-iterated explanation of the US government response, designed to flatten the curve.

References

CDC – Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19)

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The White House, DHHS & CDC  - Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19)

https://www.coronavirus.gov/

Trump, D. ( March 13, 2020) Proclamation on Declaring a National Emergency Concerning the Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Outbreak

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/

Spektor, B. (March 16, 2020) Coronavirus: What is 'flattening the curve,' and will it work? Live Science

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve.html

WHO - COVID19 outbreak situation

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

Youtube (March 13, 2020) The White House Rose Garden Press Conference – Introducing the COVID-19 Task Force
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mB6mzESzUf0 (Full conference)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IwxePYQbPbo (Cited extract)